Opportunities In Conference

Opportunities in NCAA Conference Play
By Tony George

I would like to discuss conference play in the NCAA. At my company we concentrate on four conferences and we find ample opportunity in these conference matchups each and every week. Not unlike NFL football where there is a ton of information and trends we use when teams play in their own division for the 2nd time around. In this article today I will let you in on a few secrets of the trade I have used that have made myself and my clients over the years a great deal of unit gains using these simple, yet effective methods.

The key to success in any endeavor is specialization. There are a ton of games on the board each week, and while I take a close look at them all, I find that concentrating your efforts on a finite number of teams helps you better know the trends and tendencies of each team in given scenarios. Let us take a look at a few items that will help you. Schools like Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and in years past Notre Dame and Penn State always carry inflated lines against weak sisters in conference action. More times than not they cover those numbers, but there are exceptions when there is opportunity. A key for me has been to look ahead on the schedule and see whom they are playing next week. There is parity in college football. Most every team has talent, 300-pound lineman, guys that can hit like a freight train, and wideouts and running backs that can run 4.3 - 40 yard dashes. If any given team is not ready and prepared to play a game, they can be beat, and most assuredly cannot cover a big number. An example would be in the first week of this season in 2000 when Nebraska laid 50 points to San Jose State and did not come close to covering the number. Guess who they had on the schedule the next week? They played Notre Dame. In conference action when you have an Ohio State playing Michigan, take a good look at who they are playing the week before. If they are playing a weak sister in their conference, I can bet you a dime to a dollar they are laying a big number, even on the road, and chances are better than not they are looking ahead and will not cover. Another angle is homecoming in college football. Teams rise to the occasion, especially weaker teams that are playing a top team in conference action. When this scenario occurs you usually have a double-digit home dog, and there is value in this situation against the line.